Preferred Arms

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Weapon Type	Class (Chance%)
Swords	Knight (42%), Squire (40%), Geomancer (25%), Thief (25%), Chemist* (~1%)
Knives	Thief (50%), Wizard (33%), Chemist (25%), Ninja (25%), Dancer* (~2%)
Axes	Geomancer (50%), Knight (20%), Squire (18%)
Flails	Blue Mage (35%), Priest (33%), Ninja (25%), Squire (18%)
Spears	Lancer (75%), Samurai (25%)
Knight Swords	Knight (38%)
Katanas	Samurai (75%), Geomancer (25%)
Ninja Blades	Ninja (50%), Thief (25%)
Bows	Archer (40%), Bard (25%)
Crossbows	Archer (40%), Squire (25%)
Staves	Priest (67%), Time Mage (60%), Summoner (25%)
Rods	Wizards (67%), Summoner (60%), Calculator (25%, Blue Mage 18%)
Books	Calculator (50%, Blue Mage 30%), Mediator (40%), Oracle (25%), Summoner (15%)
Poles	Oracle (75%), Time Mage (40%), Lancer (25%), Calculator (25%, Blue Mage 18%)
Guns	Mediator (60%), Chemist (25%), Archer (20%)
Harps	Bard (75%)
Fabric	Dancer (75%)
Bags	Chemist (50%), Dancer (25%), All Classes* (~1%)
Unarmed	Mimes (100%), Monks* (98%)

(The Bag chance* is omitted from this list… additionally, a weapon category that is forced via PreferredArms is marked with ~.)

Class	Weapon Type (chance%)
—	—
Squire	Swords~ (40%), Crossbows (25%), Axes (18%), Flails (18%)
Chemist	Bags~ (50%), Guns (25%), Knives (25%), Swords* (~1%)
Knight	Knight Swords~ (38%), Swords (42%), Axes (20%)
Archer	Bows~ (40%), Crossbows~ (40%), Guns (20%)
Monk	Unarmed~ (98%)
Priest	Staves~ (67%), Flails (33%)
Wizard	Rods~ (67%), Knives (33%)
Time Mage	Staves~ (60%), Poles (40%)
Summoner	Rods~ (60%), Staves (25%), Books (15%)
Thief	Knives~ (50%), Ninja Blades (25%), Swords (25%)
Mediator	Guns~ (60%), Books (40%)
Oracle	Poles~ (75%), Books (25%)
Geomancer	Axes~ (50%), Swords (25%), Katanas (25%)
Lancer	Spears~ (75%), Poles (25%)
Samurai	Katanas~ (75%), Spears (25%)
Ninjas	Ninja Blades~ (50%), Flails (25%), Knives (25%)
Calculator	Books~ (50%), Rods (25%), Poles (25%)
Blue Mage	Flails~ (35%), Books (30%), Rods (18%), Poles (18%)
Bard	Harps~ (75%), Bows (25%)
Dancer	Fabric~ (75%), Bags (25%), Knives* (~2%)
Mime	Unarmed (100%)

Certain classes have preferences in the EquipItem abilities. I'll list the 'default' list, then the preference lists, including the classes under this designation. If the class doesn't appear under the preference designation, it uses the normal list.

EquipKnife (normal)

Ninja Blades (36%)
Knives (36%)
Rods (29%)

EquipKnife (Priest, Time Mage, Oracle, Thief, Ninja, Dancer)

Rods (43%)
Ninja Blades (29%)
Knives (29%)

EquipKnife (Mediator)

Knives (43%)
Ninja Blades (29%)
Rods (29%)

EquipKnife (Chemist)

Ninja Blades (36%)
Rods (36%)
Knives (29%)

EquipKnife (Calculator, Samurai, Wizard)

Ninja Blades (43%)
Rods (29%)
Knives (29%)

EquipKnife w/ PreferredArms***

Knives Pref: Summoner, Mediator
Ninja Blades Pref: Knight, Wizard, Samurai, Calculator
Rods Pref: Chemist, Priest, Time Mage, Thief, Oracle, Ninja, Dancer

EquipSword (normal)

Swords (38%)
Katanas (36%)
Knight Swords (26%)

EquipSword (Knight)

Katanas (43%)
Swords (32%)
Knight Swords (25%)

EquipSword (Samurai)

Swords (37%)
Knight Swords (34%)
Katanas (29%)

EquipSword (Geomancer)

Knight Swords (36%)
Swords (32%)
Katanas (32%)

EquipSword (Thief)

Katanas (37%)
Knight Swords (34%)
Swords (29%)

EquipSword (Squire)

Katanas (36%)
Knight Swords (35%)
Swords (29%)

EquipSword (Ninja)

Katanas (38%)
Swords (38%)
Knight Swords (24%)

EquipSword w/ PreferredArms***

Swords Pref: Archer, Calculator, Dancer
Katanas Pref: Knight, Thief, Ninja
Knight Swords Pref: Squire, Geomancer, Samurai

EquipAxe (normal)

Axes (36%)
Flails (36%)
Staves (29%)

EquipAxe (Wizard, Bard, Oracle, Squire, Calculator non-Blue)

Staves (43%)
Axes (29%)
Flails (29%)

EquipAxe (Knight)

Flails (43%)
Axes (29%)
Staves (29%)

EquipAxe (Geomancer)

Flails (36%)
Staves (36%)
Axes (29%)

EquipAxe (Priest)

Axes (43%)
Flails (29%)
Staves (29%)

EquipAxe (Ninja, Blue Mage)

Axes (36%)
Staves (36%)
Flails (29%)

EquipAxe w/ PreferredArms***

Axes Pref: Priest, Lancer, Ninja, Blue Mage
Flails Pref: Knight, Time Mage, Summoner, Geomancer
Staves Pref: Squire, Wizard, Oracle, Calculator (non-blue), Bard

EquipGun (normal)

Guns (43%)
Books (43%)
Harps (14%)

EquipGun (Thief non-forced)

Guns (57%)
Books (29%)
Harps (14%)

EquipGun (Thief forced)

Guns (63%)
Books (25%)
Harps (13%)

EquipGun (Monk, Ninja non-forced)

Books (57%)
Guns (29%)
Harps (14%)

EquipGun (Ninjas forced)

Books (61%)
Guns (25%)
Harps (14%)

EquipGun (Calculator, Oracle, Summoner)

Guns (43%)
Books (29%)
Harps (29%)

EquipGun (Chemist)

Books (43%)
Guns (29%)
Harps (29%)

EquipGun (Mediator)

Harps (43%)
Books (29%)
Guns (29%)

EquipGun w/ PreferredArms***

Guns Pref: Summoner, Thief, Oracle
Books Pref: Chemist, Archer, Monk, Priest, Wizard, Time Mage, Bard
Harps Pref: Mediator, Calculator

EquipBow (normal)

Bows (50%)
Crossbows (50%)
Bags (1%)

EquipBow (Samurai, Squire)

Bows (64%)
Crossbows (38%)
Bags (1%)

EquipBow (Mediator, Bard)

Crossbows (64%)
Bows (38%)
Bags (1%)

EquipBow (Archer)

Bows (43%)
Crossbows (43%)
Bags (14%)

EquipBow w/ PreferredArms***

Bows Pref: Squire, Knight, Samurai
Crossbows Pref: Chemist, Mediator, Bard
Bags Pref: Archer
NO Bag Pref (Bow or Crossbow): Monk

EquipPolearm (normal)

Spears (43%)
Poles (43%)
Fabrics (14%)

EquipPolearm (Knight, Archer, Thief)

Spears (57%)
Poles (29%)
Fabrics (14%)

EquipPolearm (Wizard, Summoner, Mediator, Dancer)

Poles (57%)
Spears (29%)
Fabrics (14%)

EquipPolearm (Calculator, Oracle, Time Mage)

Spears (43%)
Poles (29%)
Fabrics (29%)

EquipPolearm (Samurai)

Poles (43%)
Spears (29%)
Fabrics (29%)

EquipPolearm (Lancer)

Fabrics (43%)
Poles (29%)
Spears (29%)

EquipPolearm w/ PreferredArms***

Spears Pref: Knight, Archer, Time Mage, Thief, Oracle
Poles Pref: Wizard, Summoner, Mediator, Samurai, Dancer
Fabrics Pref: Lancer, Calculator

This is a bit complicated, but will add roughly a 50% chance for a unit to be unarmed. This chance increased to 100% if Martial Arts was forced.
Martial Arts has a very small chance to be forced on a character with Punch Art as a secondary. This is similar to Monster Skill and Throw Item appearing on units with Talk Skill and Item. When this occurs, the unit is never unarmed. (Although this doesn't guarantee that all units with both Punch Art and Martial Arts is unarmed… Martial Arts could've rolled as a support by coincidence.)

Excluding PreferredArms (-preferredarms) ONLY equalizes your chances of the classes default weapon

* There's also a universal bag chance for every class. This chance is slightly higher for female units. This chance varies from class to class, but in general this chance is around 1% (Monks have the highest chance at this, at 2.5%). This chance still exists for Chemists and Dancers, who get Bags innately, but this chance instead gives Swords (Chemist) and Knives (Dancer). Mimes are the only class that cannot Equip Bags. Instead their 'Bag Chance' gives them access to another upgraded Armor type.

*** If PreferredArms is rolled, and the class randomly rolls into this Equip skill, this weapon category will be forced. Sometimes, this will differ slightly from normal percentage values. Also, some classes simply have no forced preference (if it isn't listed under any category), and will refer to the default chance list.